- The recent Bitcoin ETFs are a trade deal between TradFi and DeFi, believed Raoul Pal.
- Pal expected a significant FDI into crypto once the ETFs get approved.
Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal believes that Bitcoin [BTC] has now stabilized its price as the crypto market is witnessing a long bull run. The influx of institutional capital will further stabilize the market.
Pal made these remarks while speaking to Scott Melker on the “Wolf of All Streets” podcast recently. He made a number of crucial observations on Bitcoin, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and institutional interest in crypto.
Pal speculated on the nature of Bitcoin as an idiosyncratic asset. He believed that it has escaped the risk curve for now, with more capital injection. He added that the previous lows of Bitcoin were the bridges the community needed to cross to get to where it is now.
Bitcoin’s price touched $35K for the first time since May 2022. It was trading at $34,302 at press time.
As the leader of the crypto market, Bitcoin gave a much-needed push to the altcoins that also made price corrections. The altcoin market capitalization has been touching the range of $550-$570 billion for the past week. It stood at $569.7 billion at the time of writing.
TradFi venturing into DeFi
Pal also shared his thoughts on the possibility of Bitcoin ETFs coming to the market. He said he looked at these ETFs as a trade deal between traditional finance (TradFi) and decentralized finance (DeFi). He expected a significant foreign direct investment (FDI) into the crypto economy.
However, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has not given a green light to any of the spot Bitcoin ETFs so far. Two weeks back, SEC Chair Gary Gensler told Bloomberg that the agency was reviewing multiple spot ETF applications. But he didn’t comment further.
TradFi institutions such as Fidelity, BlackRock, Franklin Templeton truly believe in crypto, the Real Vision CEO remarked. However, there are a couple of issues around the crypto industry that TradFi is concerned about.
Firstly, the size of the crypto market is too small in comparison to that of the traditional market. This phenomenon often leads to liquidity crisis.
Secondly, the regulation around crypto in the US has slowed down the market. The regulator and the crypto firms are battling the matter in the courts.
Thirdly, unknown people from far-off places like Hong Kong control a large amount of crypto—that too, illiquid—oftentimes.
Nonetheless, institutional activity around Bitcoin picked up recently. According to IntoTheBlock, the number of transactions of over $100K on Bitcoin reached its highest level in 2023, i.e., nearly 23,400 transactions.
Research head Lucas Outumuro attributed the activity to the recent spot Bitcoin ETF applications.
Institutional interest in Bitcoin is clearly heating up. Transactions over $100k have reached new 2023 highs. Recent spot ETF applications seem to be a driving force, as was the case after BlackRock’s ETF filing in June. pic.twitter.com/8dAgQ8Mfpo
— IntoTheBlock (@intotheblock) October 27, 2023
Rumors, regulation plague crypto
However, we should note that the recent rally first began with a misleading tweet about the SEC approving BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF on 16 October.
Soon after, many leading commentators claimed on 24 October that the same ETF got listed on Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC). It later emerged that the website had listed the ticker in August itself.
The said ETF was added to a clearing-house eligibility file then as a “standard” practice for potential funds.
It is essentially the repetition of such rumors in the crypto market that gives ammunition to the regulating bodies against crypto. The concern of the regulators is not unreasonable, given the scale of market fluctuations such rumors often lead to.
As crypto comes under the shadow of TradFi, it will become more difficult for the sector to escape regulation.
So far, the US administration has not shown any inclination to issue a set of crypto-specific regulations. Besides, the SEC claimed that existing securities laws are sufficient to regulate the sector.
It is also its counter against the charges that the agency is pursuing a “regulation by enforcement” policy against crypto industry.
The crypto firms, such as Coinbase [COIN], have argued in court that the SEC was violating the Major Questions Doctrine in its actions. Crypto is a major question that the Congress—not the SEC—should handle, Coinbase argued.
Despite Coinbase’s multiple petitions, the SEC has hardly touched upon crypto rulemaking in its responses. Therefore, it is critical that we observe how the market size of crypto plays out in relation to traditional influx and regulation.